The streak continues!
Having gone 7/8 in the previous two columns, I hit on all six of my bets last week. The mathemagicians among you will have already worked this out, but all told that means I’ve now won 13 of my last 14 wagers.
Not bad, Joe. Not bad at all.
Why thank you, Joe.
Full 90 Football obsessives (they’re out there) will already know that this is only the second-best run my column has enjoyed. In Week 11 last season I was coming off a 7/7, and had hit on a ridiculous 14 bets in a row. After comparing myself to The Beatles, Coppola and Hemingway, that streak prompted me to ask:
After they’d finished their masterpieces, each of these artists were confronted with the same question. When you’ve achieved perfection… where else is there to go? How can you possibly follow it up?
No such arrogance here, dear reader. Partly because I’m a year older, a year humbler… but mostly because this is a bloody difficult betting week, and I don’t want to tempt fate.
Here are our Week 8 Premier League fixtures:
It’s not a great batch of fixtures anyway… but why have they made it all worse with godawful choices for the televised games?
On Saturday, Liverpool vs Leicester is a fantastic matchup, and Norwich vs Aston Villa should see goals galore. Instead we get a stumbling Spurs visiting boring Brighton, and stingy Palace at West Ham.
Things get much worse on Sunday. Arsenal vs Bournemouth is always a fun game (more on that later), and Wolves played City tight last season. But no! Instead we get mediocre Southampton hosting Chelsea… and – I’m falling asleep just typing it – Newcastle against Man U. Yep, perhaps the two most boring teams in the league squaring off… AND IT’S LIVE!
From a gambling perspective, this is a tricky week too. Most results look to be either complete toss-ups or sure-things. I had a tough time finding any actual value, so unfortunately I’ve had to go with safe bets at uninspiring prices.
No need to take any risks for the sake of it, though, especially heading into an international break promising ample opportunity to brood over silly wagers.
Odds for my Week 8 Premier League Betting Tips come courtesy of Full 90 Football’s favourite bookmaker, William Hill. Click below to get a lovely £30 in free bets, in exchange for a £10 qualifying wager.
(All odds are correct at the time of writing)
Let’s get cracking!
Week 8 Betting Picks
Arsenal -1 Handicap vs Bournemouth
As noted in my recent Premier League Power Rankings, this edition of Arsenal isn’t really any different to those past. That goes for good and bad, though, and a point on the good side is that we almost always beat teams like Bournemouth at home, usually scoring plenty en route.
Since promotion, Bournemouth have visited the Emirates four times. They have lost every game by at least two goals, at an aggregate score of 13-2. They didn’t even score in two of those games… against Arsenal!
Arsenal have hardly looked imperious recently, in the Prem at least, but this seems a surefire win. You can get the -1.5 at 21/20, but I prefer getting my stake back on the push for slightly lower odds.
Norwich vs Aston Villa, Both Teams to Score
Can you imagine trying to convince a non-football fan to watch “Norwich vs Aston Villa”? Doesn’t that just sound like the worst game ever? This should actually be a fun game, though!
These teams come into the game 17th and 18th respectively, and both will be gunning for a win to relieve the pressure. Villa have looked sprightly recently, scoring two in each of their last two fixtures, and Norwich have scored three in both of their home games so far. Norwich will be relentlessly offensive, as always, and Villa won’t be scared to attack the league’s 2nd-worst defence.
This is a BTTS lock, which is why the odds are so low, annoyingly.
Thank God we don’t have to watch this instead of Brighton vs Spurs, though. What a shame that would be.
Southampton vs Chelsea, BTTS
Well, this won’t be the worst game on Sunday!
(Okay, all moaning aside, this could actually be fun.)
Since being shut out by Burnley on the opening day, Saints have scored in all eight games they’ve played in all competitions, including away to Sheffield and Spurs. Chelsea have a mere one clean sheet all season, and that was at home to Brighton… but they’ve also scored in every Premier League match, with 14 goals in seven games.
(Shane) Long story short, this has BTTS written all over it.
West Ham on Draw No Bet vs Palace
This one makes me a bit nervous… but I can’t resist.
West Ham have obviously been fantastic so far, with three wins, three draws and only one loss (to Man City, so it doesn’t really count). If they’re going to challenge for top six this year, this is exactly the kind of home game where they should be taking care of business.
Betting against Roy gives me the heebie-jeebies, though. Palace have also been good this year, and were exceptional on the road in 18/19.
But can I see Palace actually winning here? No, which is why I’m willing to take this. West Ham should win, and even if they don’t, the Draw No Bet returns our stake.
Burnley Win or Draw vs Everton
Unless you happen to be an Everton fan, this is the kind of bet you just have to root for.
Burnley have gone about their business once again, keeping clean sheets at home and grinding out results on the road. Everton spent a ton of money, again, and have been terrible. Best of all, if Everton do lose and Silva gets fired (a distinct possibility, with a two week break coming up)… I’ll have been right all along!
Burnley have played two home games against teams that aren’t Liverpool, and have won them 3-0 and 2-0. Everton have played three away games, lost two and drawn one… and have scored a mighty one goal.
Up the Clarets!!!
I popped a couple of half-tips for goalscorer bets here last week, with Aubameyang to score against Man U being the main one. Naturally he did score, because he scores every game… and he looks safe to do so again this week! Unfortunately William Hill agree, and he’s a ridiculously low 4/7 to score anytime. That puts us in a tricky position where the bet probably will win… but really doesn’t offer good value. I leave it to your judgement.
Other decent goalscorer shouts this week are Kane at 17/20, Aguero at 6/10 (crap odds, but he’ll probably score), Pukki at 3/4, and Salah at evens.
Right, that’s enough for today. Have a good weekend, everybody, and I’ll see you the other side of the break.