After the thrills and spills of an elongated week 32 in the Premier League, we’ve got a considerably more chilled weekend this time out.
There are a mere six games on the slate, with big boys Man U, Man City and Spurs all absent, and Fulham granted leave to lament the final nail being driven into their relegation-shaped coffin. Championship ahoy!
A mediocre fixture list won’t stop me, though, oh no. I’ve come out swinging like Jordan Pickford after a few too many strawberry daiquiris, with – if not a full slate of Week 33 Premier League betting tips – a bloody good effort nonetheless.
These are our week 33 Premier League fixtures:
(As always, please ignore the wonky times – I’m still writing from Bangkok)
We’re… not exactly blessed with fascinating matchups this week. Bournemouth vs Burnley should be an interesting game, though, and Newcastle vs Crystal Palace looks an evenly-balanced encounter.
Because of the dearth of wagering opportunities, we’re having to draft in a few of my least favourite teams to bet on. Leicester and West Ham have hurt me many a time this season, whether I’ve picked for or against them, and are normally borderline stay-aways. This week, though, both make the cut.
I had a nice week with my last batch of Premier League betting tips, hitting 3 of my 4 Best Bets, meaning I’ve now won 7 of my last 9. My Tasty Tips haven’t been doing too badly either. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Odds, as always, are provided by Full 90 Football’s favourite bookmaker William Hill. Click below to get a lovely £30 in free bets, in exchange for a £10 qualifying wager.
(All odds are correct at the time of writing)
While, as stated, I’ve given it a good crack this week… as I’ve also stated, it’s a pretty rubbish fixture list.
I really don’t like to force my Premier League predictions, particularly when it comes to Best Bets, and I only found one worthy of the label. It’s a pretty damn safe thing, though, and certainly deserves a good stake.
Everton vs Arsenal, Both Teams to Score
For most of the season, the Arsenal BTTS has been my most reliable bet.
Annoyingly the Gunners have tightened up at home in recent weeks, keeping 4 clean sheets in their last 6 games at the Emirates. Fortunately for us, though, they’re still terrible on the road! In fact, Arsenal have failed to hold the opposition in 10 straight away games… and have still managed to cover the BTTS in 9 of those.
Given Arsenal’s road woes, Everton are actually a decent pick to win this week at 2/1, or on a Double Chance Home/Draw at 13/20.
I think the BTTS is a safer bet, though. Everton haven’t exactly been lighting it up at Goodison Park in recent months, but they’ve just beaten Chelsea and West Ham back-to-back… and again, Arsenal’s defence is rubbish on the road.
While the Best Bets cupboard is a bit empty this time out, I still found enough good Week 33 Premier League betting picks to fill out the Tasty Tips section nicely.
We’ve got 3 selections this week, each worth a decent stake of your hard-earned.
Newcastle to Beat Crystal Palace
As I mentioned in the intro, this is one of the only genuinely interesting games we have this week.
Newcastle and Crystal Palace are almost inseparable. They’re 13th and 14th in the table, with only 1 point between them, and are 8th and 9th in the form table over the last 6 games. Newcastle are in excellent form at home, having won 5 on the bounce, and Palace have won 4 of their last 7 away games.
On paper, matchups don’t get much closer than this… making it a perfect candidate for one of my Golden Rules of Gambling!
In short, if two teams looked extremely well-matched heading into a game… take the home team. For all the improvements in matchday travel, and the supposed collective death of fans’ passion, being at home still counts for an awful lot in the Prem.
Bournemouth vs Burnley, BTTS
Ah, and here’s the other good game this weekend!
Burnley have become one of my favourite teams to bet on in recent months, having proved fairly reliable for both the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals. Bournemouth are reliable in a different way – they’re good at home, and absolutely awful on the road. Basically, I feel like we have a good feel for both teams by now, making this a fairly safe betting pick.
Specifically for the BTTS, Bournemouth have netted in 8 of their last 10 home games, only failing to score against Liverpool and Man City. Oh, and they happen to have conceded in 7 of those 10 games too!
Burnley haven’t been quite so BTTS-friendly, but they’ve still hit it in 7 of their last 10 games home and away. They’ve scored fairly well recently too, and I don’t trust Bournemouth’s defence any further than I could throw them (not very far, I’m guessing).
Chelsea vs West Ham, BTTS No
West Ham have been dreadful on the road since the turn of the year, and sit 18th in the away table over the last 6 games. The only teams worse than them have been Huddersfield and Fulham. Yup, that’s how bad they’ve been. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 away games, and – crucially for this bet – have failed to score in all 5 of those losses.
For all the stick they’ve taken, Chelsea have actually been pretty good at home. They’ve won 6 and drawn 3 of their last 10 at the Bridge, a span which includes victories over Man City and Spurs. Most importantly, they’ve also kept an impressive 7 clean sheets in those 10 games. Turns out that when you average 61% possession, you don’t concede many goals!
Generally-speaking, I don’t love taking the BTTS No in the attack-heavy Premier League. That said, I’m happy to make an exception here.
I might just start calling this the ‘Anytime Goalscorer Zone’. They’re betting picks which are generally popular, but I believe are too random to put a decent stake on.
With that said… this pair are certainly worth a punt.
Vardy to Score vs Huddersfield
Since giving Claude Puel the old Julius Caesar treatment, Vardy has been in much higher spirits. He’s got 6 goals in his last 7 games, and scored 2 against Fulham (the most… comparable opposition he’s faced to Huddersfield, to put it delicately).
Huddersfield are rubbish, if you hadn’t heard already, and have lost 8 of their last 10 at home.
Tielemans to Score vs Huddersfield
Did I mention that Huddersfield were rubbish?
This is certainly riskier than the Vardy pick, but I was surprised to see the odds so high. FPL darling Tielemans has been in rude form recently, with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 7 games (including internationals), and he’s been getting a ton of playing time too.
This is definitely a punt, but – at these odds – it’s a worthwhile one.
Accumulator Betting Tips
(Selections in bold)
The Safe Option
Southampton vs Liverpool
Chelsea vs West Ham
Risky Accumulator of the Week
Southampton vs Liverpool
Chelsea vs West Ham
Huddersfield vs Leicester
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Well, that just about wraps it up for this week. If you turn a big profit off my Premier League betting tips, be sure to check in again next week. If I miss on every prediction (unlikely, but not impossible)… I was never really here…
(***Throws mysterious object at the ground and disappears in a puff of smoke***)
Good luck out there, everybody!