Welcome back to the glorious return of the Premier League, and the even more glorious return of the Full 90 Football Premier League betting tips!
I know there’s a backlash going on at the moment, against people who moan about the international breaks… but I very much remain a self-confessed moaner.
I still can’t bring myself to care too much about the neverending, stop-start international games – whoever is playing – and heavily suspect said backlash is simply a direct result of England being quite good again.
Regardless, the Premier League is back, we’ve got an absolute ton of games coming up, and I’m very excited.
These are our week 32 Premier League fixtures:
Lord, would you just look at that beautiful, full slate of games. Isn’t it majestic?
(That is, if you ignore the wonky times – I’m still in Bangkok, on GMT+7)
We’ve got a lovely mix of games this week, with just one ‘sure thing’ – Fulham vs Man City – that’s very difficult to bet on, and at least 6 intriguing clashes.
The only games I’d call stay-aways are Palace vs Huddersfield and Brighton vs Southampton. The teams involved are just too unpredictable for my Premier League betting strategy, with too few tendencies to give us any reliable bets.
Those three fixtures aside, I found a treasure trove of Premier League betting picks this week. Without further ado, let’s get stuck in.
Odds, as always, are provided by our favourite bookmaker William Hill. Click below to get a hefty £30 in free bets, in exchange for a £10 qualifying wager.
(All odds are correct at the time of writing)
Regular readers will know that I usually limit myself to two or three Best Bets. This week, I’ve got four. I’ve actually got more Best Bets than Tasty Tips, which I’m pretty sure has never happened before.
I’ve hit on 4 of my last 5 Best Bets, so it’s fair to say these are all pretty safe picks.
Burnley vs Wolves, Both Teams to Score
It’s rare to get so deep into a season without the bookies catching onto a big trend… but they still seem to think this is the 2017/18 Burnley, rather than the 2018/19 version.
This Burnley side have conceded the most shots in the league by far, and have conceded the second-most goals. They’ve only kept two clean sheets in their last 10 home games, and those came against West Ham (who aren’t good on the road) and Brighton (ditto). On the flip-side, they have managed to score in all 10 of those games.
Wolves have been the 8th-best away team in the league this season. They don’t score a lot overall on their travels, but they have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 road games.
This should be a very entertaining game, and I’ve got no clue what the final result will be. I’m very confident that both teams will score, though.
Man United vs Watford, Over 2.5 Goals
I swear to Messi, if I hear one more reference to ‘Ole being at the wheel‘, I’m going to throw myself into the Chao Phraya river (which – if you’ve never visited Bangkok – is not a pretty sight). Yes, it’s a chant… get over it. You’re not funny, original, or entertaining for recycling the exact same thing everyone else is saying. Stop it.
With that out of the way, let’s get on with the analysis, shall we?
Bizarrely, Man U have a much better defensive record away from Old Trafford than they do within it in recent months. They’ve kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 away games… and only 1 in their last 8 home games. I’ve got no idea why that’s the case… but there’s the information, so let’s exploit it!
The Over 2.5 has hit in 8 of Man U’s last 10 home games. Watford are wildly unpredictable on the road (so one of my mini-Premier League betting tips is not to bet the result here), but – one way or another – they’ve also covered the Over 2.5 in 7 of their last 10 away games.
This should be another cracking game. Let’s make it extra-cracking by squeezing a few quid out of it.
Arsenal to Score Over 1.5 Goals vs Newcastle
Arsenal have been spectacular at home, winning a ludicrous 9 games on the spin at the Emirates. They’ve scored for fun too, netting 26 goals in their last 10 home games. For the purposes of this bet, they’ve also scored at least 2 goals in 8 of those games.
The only teams to hold them under 2 goals? Wolves (fine), and… Huddersfield. Go figure.
Newcastle have generally had a strong 2nd half to the season, but they’ve done the vast majority of their damage at home. In fact, they’ve won precisely 0 of their last 7 away games. Within that span, they’ve conceded at least 2 goals 4 times.
Rafa’s Magpies are certainly no mugs, but I’m confident enough in Arsenal’s home form to take this pick.
Leicester to Score Over 1.5 Goals vs Bournemouth
In terms of their actual results, I’ve got absolutely no idea what to make of Leicester at the moment. They’ve won 3 and lost 3 in their last 6, and are the definition of a stay-away team for a 1/X/2 bet.
That said, they’ve got a couple of lovely trends going which are ripe for gambling exploitation in my Premier League betting tips. They’ve covered both the BTTS and the Over 2.5 in 6 games running, and I wouldn’t blame you for taking either bet in this match.
Personally, though, I don’t want to rely on Bournemouth here in any way, shape or form. They’ve been staggeringly bad on the road, losing 9 of their last 10 games. Their sole win in that stretch came against… Huddersfield. Congratulations!
More importantly, they’ve also conceded at least 2 in all 9 of those losses. Leicester might be a little inconsistent, but there’s nothing inconsistent about the Cherries’ awfulness on the road.
I’ve only got two Tasty Tips for you this week. That’s considerably fewer than normal, but I didn’t want to force it.
Neither are quite as safe as my Best Bets, but both are still worth a decent chunk of your hard-earned.
West Ham to Beat Everton
Given my rampant anti-Marco Silva bias, I have to be careful to stay objective with Everton-related betting picks. To be clear, that’s not sarcasm – I really don’t like him. I thought Everton finishing 7th was one of the locks of the season, but Silva’s been so bad they might not even make the top half.
Objectively, though… I’m still pretty confident Everton will lose this game.
At first glance, Everton’s recent away record looks pretty good – they’ve won 3 of their last 7 road games. At second glance, you see that those 3 wins came against Cardiff, Huddersfield and Burnley.
Remove those matches, and – of the 7 away games they’ve played against decent teams, Everton have lost 6 of them.
West Ham are a more-than-decent team at their Stadio Olimpico. They’ve got the 7th best home record this season, and have won 4 of their last 5 home matches (the other result being a commendable 1-1 draw against Liverpool).
In short, it’s a good home team against a mediocre away team. Shall we go ahead and take the good home team as one of our Premier League betting picks? Yes we shall.
Leicester to Beat Bournemouth
See: my previous comments on Bournemouth’s ineptitude on the road.
For their part, Leicester look to have made a partial recovery since the Brodge’s arrival, winning their last 2 home games. Admittedly, those came against 2 poor away teams in Brighton and Fulham… but – say it with me now – you can only beat what’s put in front of you. Also, did I mention how bad Bournemouth are away?
Do foxes eat cherries? They do this week.
These flyers aren’t complete shots in the dark.
They’re still Premier League betting tips that I like; simply not enough to put a decent stake on.
Mane to Score Anytime vs Spurs
Tottenham have lost 3 away matches on the bounce – including to Burnley and Southampton – and have conceded 2 goals in each game. Liverpool handled Spurs easily enough at Wembley back in September, and I’m expecting them to do the same this weekend.
Mane is the most dangerous player in the country right now, scoring 7 goals in his last 5 games. Taking a flyer on him to maintain his current form is an easy choice.
Lacazette to Score Anytime vs Newcastle
This is another form pick. Lacazette has been on fire since mid-January, either scoring or assisting in 8 of his last 11 games, and grabbing 5 goals in that span.
Again, I’m heavily backing Arsenal to beat Newcastle this weekend, and Laca offers slightly better odds than his Gabonese partner-in-crime.
Cardiff vs Chelsea, Draw
This feels like a massive potential banana skin for Sarri’s schizophrenic Chelsea side. Everyone’s assuming an automatic win, and everyone’s got Hazard and/or Higuain in their FPL lineup this week.
(Check out our guide to navigating the upcoming double and blank gameweeks in Fantasy Premier League here).
In reality, this really could go either way. Chelsea have lost 4 of their last 5 away games, failing to score in all 4 of those losses. Cardiff, for their part, are a respectable home side. While I wouldn’t pick them to win, and I wouldn’t even put a noteworthy stake on this selection… I do like the odds for a (probably extremely dull) draw here.
Accumulator Betting Tips
The Safe Option
Fulham vs Man City
Man Utd vs Watford
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Risky Accumulator of the Week
Fulham vs Man City
Man Utd vs Watford
Arsenal vs Newcastle
Leicester vs Bournemouth
West Ham vs Everton
Like the aforementioned Sadio Mane, I came into the international break on a very nice run of form indeed. I feel extremely confident in keeping it going this week, and – hopefully – we’ll build up some momentum heading into this congested period of the season.
Good luck out there, everybody!