Premier League Betting Tips – Week 23
Ooh I was angry last week. Grinding my teeth with rage, I was. Well, when my teeth weren’t chattering in the freezing cold of the Baggies vs Norwich game, that is…
Full 90 Football on tour!
Not our most glamorous outing, admittedly, but in the words of noted West Brom fan William Shakespeare, “A tour’s a tour.”#EFL #WestBrom #WBA pic.twitter.com/pnqKhbi7KA
— Full 90 Football (@Full90Footie) January 12, 2019
(Did you know that the Hawthorns is the highest stadium above sea level in Britain? I’ll bet you did, didn’t you. Eurgh, what a smart arse. Well, never mind. Let’s carry on).
Yes, I hit on three of my four Tasty Tips. Yes, I particularly nailed the Cardiff vs Huddersfield snoozefest, winning on both the Cardiff/Draw and the Under 2.5 Goals.
But it’s the Best Bets which I take the most pride in… and which I put the most money on.
I only went 1/3 on last week’s Best Bets. The two losses were quite unbelievably frustrating. The first was West Ham vs Arsenal, BTTS (it finished 1-0 to the Hammers). I watched most of that game, for my sins. God, we were terrible. Of course it also happened to be the first time we’ve failed to score since the opening game of the season, five months ago. Grr.
The second – Spurs vs Man U, BTTS – was even more infuriating. Yes, de Gea’s goalkeeping masterclass was objectively incredible… but his neverending series of improbable saves cost me money, damnit!
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Anyway. We go again. I haven’t lost any confidence whatsoever heading into this week, because I still stand by my analysis for both of those Best Bets.
Here are this week’s Premier League fixtures:
I actually quite like this slate of games, heading in. You can make a very good guess as to how every match will go, either in terms of the result, or the nature of the game (defensive showdown, goalfest, etc.).
I do have a pretty firm list of “Stay Away” teams at the moment, though, so I’ll be particularly careful in their games. The wildly inconsistent Leicester are top of the list. Bournemouth are on it too (2nd worst record in the league over the last 10 games), and I’d be wary about betting on Southampton right now (I’ve got no idea if and when the #NewManagerBounce will end).
On a related note, the biggest Stay Away matchup this week is Watford vs Burnley. Watford have been excellent recently, sitting sixth in the form table over the last six matches. Burnley have won their last three games, though, and can’t be taken lightly any more. Watford are tempting, but I’d recommend steering well clear of that one.
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With those notes of caution sounded, I’ll once again say that I do like these games. In fact, I really, really like them. Every week, I make a longlist of potential bets, then gradually whittle it down to my favourites until I’ve settled on my picks. This week, the longlist was the longest it’s been all season, by far.
Let’s get cracking with this week’s Premier League Betting Tips, shall we? Odds are provided by William Hill, as always, and are correct at the time of writing.
Best Bets
Prior to last week, I’d been on fire with these. I’m hoping for – nay, expecting – a return to form here.
I’ve got three Best Bets for you this week. They’re all pretty safe (the first two more than the third), and you should feel comfortable popping down a reasonable stake on each.
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1) Arsenal vs Chelsea, Both Teams to Score – 4/7
Did you see the first meeting between these two teams? It was utter madness. Five goals scored, 39 shots in total, 17 shots on target.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then… but Arsenal’s defence is still terrible. It’s worse, if anything. They do, however, still score a lot of goals, particularly at home. They’ve scored 12 goals in their last four games at the Emirates, and – as a good sign for this bet – have only kept one clean sheet in those matches… and that was to Huddersfield.
Chelsea have been weird and inconsistent for a while now. They do, however, score away from home. In their last 10 away games, they’ve only been shut out once.
This should be a fun one. Probably not for Arsenal fans, like myself, but for the average fan with no vested interest. “One for the neutrals,” you might say. Hey, that’s actually pretty good. Maybe it will catch on?
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2) Newcastle to Win or Draw vs Cardiff – 1/5
I fell in love last week. What’s the object of my affections, you ask? The “if two terrible teams are playing each other, just take the home team” bet. I think we’re going to be very happy together.
Last week I nailed it on both Burnley vs Fulham, and Cardiff vs Huddersfield. This week, we’re taking boring, boring Newcastle.
This will be a terrible game. Of that I’m sure. But, as I always say, that’s the beauty of betting – it can enliven even the dullest of encounters.
Here’s a fun wrinkle. Newcastle have been the second-worst home team in the league this season. Guess who’s been the second-worst away team? Cardiff!
No further analysis is necessary. These are both clearly awful teams, and the home team has the automatic edge.
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3) Newcastle vs Cardiff, Under 3.5 Goals – 1/5
Generally, see above.
Newcastle have the second-worst attacking record in the league this season, bagging a mere 16 goals in 22 games. Guess who’s next on the list? Cardiff again! They’ve managed an impressive (by contrast) 19 scores. Nice!
Newcastle’s defence has taken a pummeling lately, which makes me slightly nervous about this game. They are at home, though, and said pummelings did come from the likes of Liverpool, Man U and Chelsea.
As I mentioned… one paragraph ago, they’re not exactly facing the most fearsome attack either. In their last four games, Cardiff have scored zero, one, zero and zero goals. And this is a Premier League side. Incredible.
What. A. Game.
Tasty Tips
Mm, mm, mmm, would you look at these tips. See how tasty they look? They’re positively mouth-watering. Take one. Go on, take one. That’s right. Tastes good, doesn’t it? Room for another? Go on! That’s it. Even better than the first one, right?
Ahem.
Tasty Tips are bets I like very much, but not as much as my Best Bets. That is all.
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1) Man U to Win vs Brighton – 1/4
Hmm. I don’t tend to like betting on a team to win straight-up, preferring the safety of a Double Chance or Draw No Bet.
In this case, however, I couldn’t resist. Man U attacked pretty relentlessly for much of their last game against Spurs, and certainly should have gotten more than one goal. For all their defensive solidity, and status as a #WellOrganizedTeam… Brighton just ain’t Spurs.
Man U have won five on the bounce now. A correction is coming eventually, but I don’t think it’ll be this weekend.
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2) Wolves vs Leicester, Under 2.5 Goals – 8/15
As I said at the top, Leicester are on my list of Stay Away teams when it comes to betting the result. I feel good about this particular wager, however.
Most of this confidence actually comes from Leicester. Not because they’re particularly “good”, but because they grind out results on the road like no other team in the league. Their past six away games in a row have gone under 2.5 goals. Basically, they either win 1-0 or draw 1-1, every single time.
It’s hard to judge Wolves’ form in any regard, because they’ve had such a brutal schedule recently – they’ve played Man City, Spurs and Liverpool in their last five. I mean, the other two teams they played were Crystal Palace and Fulham… and they didn’t beat either of them. But, crucially for this bet, they also only scored one goal, total, in those games.
I’m hoping this game will be tighter and cagier than a grapple-heavy UFC bout.
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3) Arsenal to Win or Draw vs Chelsea – 4/7
I hate myself in advance for making this bet, but I just can’t help it.
Everyone’s sounding the alarm bells for Arsenal, because they’ve lost two of their last three in abject fashion. Both of those were away games, though… and, if you didn’t already know, Arsenal stink away.
They are, however, a very good home team. The third-best in the Prem this season, to be precise. They’ve won four in a row at the Emirates, and – of the two home “Big Six” games – they drew 1-1 with Liverpool, and demolished Spurs 4-2. Remember that Spurs game? I do.
Coincidentally, Chelsea have been the third-best away team in the league. They’ve only played one Big Six away game… and got spanked by Spurs.
This bet could make me look very silly. But, in short, I think people are overreacting to two bad Arsenal games, forgetting they’re a good home team, and forgetting Chelsea’s mixed recent form (they certainly haven’t passed the eye test).
Chelsea are favourites in this game, for God’s sake, over Arsenal or the draw. That’s ridiculous.
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4) Bournemouth vs West Ham, BTTS – 8/15
Again, I feel nervous betting on a game with two such inconsistent teams. Based on the recent form of each though, and the sheer makeup of the two sides (shaky defence, good going forward), this seems like a pretty safe bet.
Bournemouth have scored in six of their last eight home games, and one of the two shutouts came against Liverpool. West Ham have actually been very good on the road recently, and have also scored in six of their last eight away games.
This should be a fun game. Rather than try and pick the result, which would be incredibly hard to do, let’s just take the easy option and go with BTTS.
Flyers
These are exactly what the name suggests – flyers! They’re fun little bets to root for, and I think they’ve got a chance of coming in, but row back on your stakes.
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1) Arsenal to Win vs Chelsea – 2/1
You can mostly just copy and paste my analysis from the Arsenal/Draw bet here.
I do think Arsenal offer excellent value to win. Again, the last massive home game they played was against Spurs, and they were spectacular. 2/1 are good odds, here.
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2) West Ham to Win vs Bournemouth – 19/10
Again, I simply think this represents good value.
West Ham are flying high after their win over the tepid Gunners last weekend. Bournemouth are flying lowww – as I mentioned earlier, they’ve been the second-worst team in the league over the last 10 games.
(Three guesses who’s the only worse team than them. I’ll give you a clue – their manager just took the first plane he could back to Germany.)
I never like betting an away team straight up in the Prem, but this is worth a flutter.
Accumulator Betting Tips
I’ve only got two multiples bets for you this week, both from the Prem.
As usual, here are safer and riskier versions of my Premier League accumulator bets.
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1) Premier League – “Sure Things” – 0.5/1
- Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
- Manchester United vs Brighton
(This was very nearly a full Tasty Tip. I love both of these picks)
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2) Risky Frisky EPL Acca – 1.76/1
- Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
- Manchester United vs Brighton
- Watford vs Burnley
- Huddersfield vs Man City
Final Thoughts
That wraps it up for this week. Enjoy the football, shelter from the cold, stay safe, have fun, drink responsibly, stop drop and roll, think bike, and ask Frank.
Give Full 90 Football a follow on Twitter, or a like on Facebook, for neverending good betting karma (maybe).
Thanks for reading, everybody, and have a great weekend.
