Come one, come all, and witness the glorious return of the Premier League.
Doesn’t it seem like longer than two weeks since we had a healthy dose of Prem in our lives? My calendar informs me it hasn’t been… but it does feel that way.
I’ve been eagerly awaiting this weekend, I must say. I came into the international break on a ludicrous hot streak, and I’m anxious to get right back down to it.
If you haven’t been following my Premier League betting tips columns, you find me on easily the best run of form of my life.
I’ve made 26 full betting picks in this column in the past four weeks. I’ve hit on 23 of them. Even my flyers (clearly marked as such) have been coming in pretty regularly.
My personal betting run (including picks I didn’t have time to put into a column) is even better than that – I’ve won a ridiculous 32 of my last 35 wagers.
It won’t last forever, of course, but let’s keep riding this run for as long as we can.
This is a tricky little week in the Prem.
City and Liverpool are both away, making them riskier picks than usual. The 3rd and 4th teams in the Prem are playing each other, as are 5th and 6th, 10th and 12th, 14th and 15th, and 17th and 20th. All in one weekend!
The long and short of it is that we’ve got a lot of interesting matchups on paper, and some gaps should appear in the league table after these fixtures. But… it doesn’t make gambling particularly easy this weekend.
In terms of picking a single result, in fact, I’d make all these games absolute stay-aways:
- Brighton vs Leicester
- Fulham vs Southampton
- Spurs vs Chelsea
- Bournemouth vs Arsenal
- Burnley vs Newcastle
So, that’s half our fixtures gone! I also don’t tend to like betting away teams to win, which takes Man City and Liverpool out of the equation for me too. That leaves a mighty three games I’d actually want to pick the winner in… and I have, as you’ll see below!
Anyway, let’s get stuck in.
All odds come courtesy of William Hill, which – joy of joys – is not blocked in Bulgaria, where I am now!
Odds are correct at the time of writing.
For the newcomers among you, these are the bets I have the most confidence in. They’ll tend to have lower odds, but I plan to ramp up my stakes accordingly to still bring in a decent profit.
I’ve gone 10/13 on my best bets so far this season, for the record.
1) Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Both Teams to Score – 4/9
This is about as safe as it gets.
Arsenal and Bournemouth are the third and fifth-highest scoring teams in the league. Neither of them can defend particularly well, having conceded 15 and 16 goals respectively through 12 games.
Bournemouth have scored in five of their six home games this season. Arsenal have scored in every single game home or away since their opening defeat to Man City in August.
I would be very, very surprised if this one didn’t come in.
2) Everton to Beat Cardiff – 2/5
I’m not the world’s biggest Marco Silva fan, but you can’t argue with the results he’s been getting.
Everton are third in the form table over the past six games. Their only loss in that time came to Man Utd, and they managed to get a draw at Stamford Bridge last time out. They’ve won the other four matches by an aggregate score of 10-2.
Shockingly, in that same time span, Cardiff have not done so well! In fact, they only have two wins all season, and one of those came against Fulham at home (which doesn’t count). The other win came against Brighton – also at home – when Brighton had a man sent off in 34th minute… and Cardiff still only managed to snatch the victory with a 90th minute winner!
(I’d picked Brighton to win or draw in that game – can you tell I’m still a little annoyed?)
It’s a good team against a bad team, and the good team is at home. I’m taking the good team.
3) Wolves vs Huddersfield, Under 3.5 Goals – 2/9
To be honest, I don’t love the value of the odds here. 2/9 is pretty low, after all.
But… I do love the probability of this coming in.
In Wolves’ last 10 matches, nine of them have gone under 2.5 goals, never mind 3.5. The only one that didn’t was their 3-2 loss to Tottenham.
It’s the same story with Huddersfield. Nine of their last 10 have also gone under 3.5, with the only exception being a 3-1 loss to Leicester.
If the Wolves attack is ever going to open up and start firing on all cylinders, it would probably be a home match against Huddersfield. The team isn’t really built that way, though. They play solid, controlled football, and simply look to get the result.
In this case, I think the probability outweighs the value. I’ll be putting a hefty stake on this one.
In theory, these are slightly riskier picks than my best bets. I’ve also been on fire in this section, though, so don’t shy away from putting a decent stake down.
1) Spurs vs Chelsea, Under 3.5 Goals – 4/9
I definitely wouldn’t want to pick the winner of this game. That said… I do think the odds are a bit off for it, which is usually a clue that you can find some value:
Just doing my research for the betting tips column… and stumbled across the bizzaro odds of the week.
— Full 90 Football (@Full90Footie) November 24, 2018
Still, the safer pick is to bet against a goalfest. Chelsea and Spurs have the third and fourth best defences in the league respectively, in terms of goals conceded (and on paper too, for that matter).
Nine of Spurs’ last 10 games have gone under 3.5 goals, and seven of Chelsea’s have too.
This should be a pretty fascinating tactical matchup, and I’m certainly looking forward to the game. I don’t think it’ll be a barn-burner, though.
2) Fulham to Win or Draw vs Southampton – 4/9
That’s right, baby! I’m taking the worst team in the league to get a result, and I don’t even feel bad about it!!!
It’s hard to overstate how atrocious Fulham have been. They’ve amassed an incredible -20 goal difference after only 12 games.
The thing is… Southampton haven’t been much better. They’re 17th in the league, and they’re only that high because of the dross beneath them.
Fulham and Southampton both have only one win all season. I think they’re as bad as each other. And, in that case, I’m taking the team with the “home field advantage”, as our cousins across the pond like to say. Fulham do also have a better team on paper, and I’m expecting something of a new manager-bounce courtesy of Ranieri’s arrival.
Surely even Fulham can’t lose this one.
3) Man U to Beat Crystal Palace – 42/100
For all the unnecessary brouhaha that Mourinho inevitably brings down upon all of his teams, Man U have actually been in good form recently.
In their last five games they’ve won three, drawn away to Chelsea, and their sole loss came against Man City. They’ve also generally taken care of business against clearly inferior teams all season, barring an early loss away to Brighton. I still don’t think they’re a particularly good team – they’re certainly nowhere near the current top four – but they’re much better than Palace.
Palace are on a hellish run of fixtures, having played Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal back-to-back. All told, they’ve lost seven of their last 10 games, with the only win during that span coming against Huddersfield. Roy will turn things around eventually, but I’d be very surprised if Palace got anything at Old Trafford.
4) Wolves to Beat Huddersfield – 47/100
How much analysis do you need on this one?
Wolves are a very solid team, and they’re at home. Huddersfield are absolutely rubbish, and they’re away. I’m taking Wolves.
Again, I’d put this a notch below the prior two sections in terms of the old confidence rankings. My flyers still have a decent chance of coming off… but they come with caveats which deter me from putting a big stake on them.
1) Martial to Score Anytime – 6/5
This is the only flyer I really like this week.
Regular readers will know that I don’t really like betting individual goalscorers, because it’s quite a random market. Having said that… I think I’ve hit on every goalscorer I’ve put here so far, so what do I know?
This is a sheer form pick. Tony Marshall has been on song in a big way, having scored in five Premier League games in a row. Palace do have a tendency to keep it tight at the back… but I still think Man U will win, and Martial is their most likely goalscorer.
Accumulator Betting Tips
The usual caveats apply here. I’m not staking my reputation on any of these picks, because multiples are very hard bets to win. You can have the safest accumulator in the world on paper, but at least one result always screws you.
Hence, I like to provide a selection of options, ranked in order of risk.
I’ve got three multiples bets for you this week. I’m fairly confident in the first one, because there are only two selections, but the other two are much riskier.
1) Safest Bet – 0.98/1
- Man U vs Crystal Palace
- Everton vs Cardiff
2) Riskier Bet – 2.76/1
- Man U vs Crystal Palace
- Everton vs Cardiff
- Wolves vs Huddersfield
- West Ham vs Man City
3) European Favourites – 0.65/1
- Bayern Munich vs Fortuna
- PSG vs Toulouse
- Inter vs Frosinone
- Juventus vs Spal
If you want to take the odds higher, then adding this will get you up to 0.9/1:
Okie dokie, that should do for today.
My confidence is running pretty high after my excellent run of form, so hopefully I’ll put some extra dough in your account this week too!