It’s fair to say I was a tad rusty with the old betting picks, coming out of my little break. I nailed my Arsenal picks (to Score Over 2.5 Goals, to beat Bournemouth, and for Lacazette to Score Anytime) – you can’t say I don’t know my own club – but went amiss elsewhere.
I was particularly annoyed because I broke two of my own biggest rules.
Firstly, I took teams on the road who weren’t an absolute slam-dunk. Spurs and Fulham both failed to score, Brighton lost to Leicester, and – staggeringly – Wolves lost to Huddersfield.
(This was my analysis for that last pick…)
It’s so tempting to make these bets, because A) you get nice odds for them, and B) on paper, they look like good picks. The reason I’ve got the rule in the first place, though, is that it’s really hard to win away in the Prem. Even against rubbish teams. I’m forcing myself to bear that in mind this week.
I also forgot my own list of Stay Away teams.
Leicester have been on there for some time. Since beating Chelsea and Man City back-to-back, they’ve lost to Cardiff, Crystal Palace and Southampton at home… but they’ve also beaten Everton away, and drawn 1-1 at Anfield.
Wolves are my #1 Stay Away right now. There’s no rhyme or reason to their results. They don’t even seem to receive any benefit from playing at the Molineux (they’re 14th in the form table at home; 7th on the road). They beat Spurs 3-1 away in their last game of 2018… then lost 2-0 to Palace at home. They scored 10 goals in three games against Leicester, Wolves and Everton… then scored two in their next three games. Good luck guessing what the hell this team is going to do from week to week.
Other teams who aren’t quite on the list, but make me nervous, include Southampton, Watford and West Ham.
Anyway, in the words of Steven Gerrard, we go again. Here are this week’s Premier League betting tips.
(All odds are provided by William Hill, and are correct at the time of writing)
We’ve got an odd slate of games this week, with most of the matchups being pretty damn hard to predict on paper.
Accordingly, I’ve only gone for two Best Bets, but both of them are pretty safe picks.
1) Spurs vs Arsenal, Both Teams To Score – 8/15
Spurs let me down on this bet last week, when they failed to score against Chelsea. Chelsea’s defence has been known to step up and deliver big performances this season, however… whereas Arsenal’s very much hasn’t been. In fact, Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet away all season. I don’t foresee any problems for Spurs’ attack in this game.
The bigger risk would appear to be Arsenal failing to find the net. Despite their uninspiring away form, however, the Gunners do usually manage to score on the road. They’ve done so in nine of their last 10 away games, with the only exception being the dreadful 1-0 loss to West Ham, when the entire attack simply decided to take the afternoon off (yes, I’m still bitter about our performance in that game).
The return fixture back at the Emirates was a thrilling encounter, and I’m hoping for – and expecting – more fireworks at Wembley.
2) Man U to Score Over 1.5 Goals vs Southampton – 1/2
Southampton are all over the place at the moment, with two wins, two draws and two losses in their last six games. Coincidentally, they’ve also got the exact same record over their last six away games. They’re no pushovers on the road, by any means.
This is more of a bet on Man U to continue their dazzling attacking form under Solskjær. They’ve played five home games in the league since Ole came in, and scored two or more in four of those, with the only exception being last week’s dreadful match against Liverpool (i.e. the league’s best defence, by far).
There’s almost no doubt in my mind that Man U will bag at least two here, and 1/2 is a very fair price indeed.
While – as I said – I’m a little wary of this slate of games, there are still four bets good enough for my Tasty Tips.
1) Chelsea to Beat Fulham – 1/2
This is the one exception I’m making this week to my “be wary of road teams” rule. I don’t feel great about it, but if you’re going to break the rule for anyone, it might as well be Fulham. They’ve been pounded into the ground by the big teams at home this season, losing to Man U, Spurs and Arsenal by an aggregate score of 10-2, and have the overall worst home record in the league.
I don’t exactly love backing Chelsea, who’ve lost three away games on the bounce. Two of those were against Arsenal and City, though, and they’ve looked far better in their last two games, against City (in the League Cup final) and Spurs.
Ultimately, all home/away questions aside, this is a good team against a rubbish team, and I’m getting pretty sound odds on the good team. Deal!
2) Man City to Score Over 2.5 Goals vs Bournemouth – 8/11
Remember when Man City had that blip a few months back? Seems like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? Since then, City’s attack has been on a brutal revenge tour. They’ve scored 25 goals in their last 10 games, winning eight of those.
While City have been a little shaky on the road recently, Bournemouth have a poor record against the big teams, even at home, where they’ve lost 2-1 to Man U, 2-1 to Arsenal, and 4-0 to Liverpool. With City’s attack (better than that of all those teams) firing on all cylinders, and Eddie Howe never having learnt the phrase “let’s keep it tight at the back, lads”, I’m predicting plenty o’ goals for the Citizens.
3) Burnley vs Crystal Palace, BTTS – 17/20
Didn’t see this coming, did you?!
At first glance, this game admittedly looks like a snoozefest. But, if we delve swiftly into the stats, there’s some potential here for a pretty entertaining game.
Burnley have been excellent at home in recent weeks. They’ve won four of their last six, including triumphs over West Ham and Spurs, and have scored in nine of their last 10 at Turf Moor. Crucially for this bet, six of their last eight home games have covered the BTTS.
Palace have sneakily put together a lovely run of form on the road. In fact, they’ve been the fourth best away team in the league over the last six games, winning three and drawing one of those games. Those three wins didn’t come against a bunch of schmucks, either – they beat Man City (!), Wolves and Leicester. And, in relation to our little BTTS, they’ve also scored a ton of goals in that span – a quite ridiculous 15.
That’s right – Crystal Palace have scored 15 goals in their last six away games.
In short, this could be a much more entertaining game than you might have thought. Let’s make it even more entertaining by gambling on it!
4) Everton vs Liverpool, Under 2.5 Goals – 17/20
The bookies have no idea what to do with this one. Both the Over and Under 2.5 Goals are 17/20, and the BTTS Yes and No are both 17/20 too. Basically, it could be a goalfest, or it could be a defensive battle.
I’m plumping for the latter. This matchup back at Anfield was one of the worst games I’ve watched all season, and should have been a 0-0, but for (the massively overrated) Jordan Pickford’s calamitous mistake.
A big loss in this game would be a huge dent to Marco Silva’s already-tenuous long-term hold on his job. Everton have no choice but to defend here… and Liverpool’s defence is amazing anyway, whether the team plays defensively or not.
In truth, a draw would suit both teams, and I doubt either one will be going all-out for the win. This game could really be a stinker, so – as always, in this situation – I’d suggest brightening it up with a wager.
These aren’t complete dart-throws. I still like the bets, just not quite enough to put them into my Tasty Tips.
In this week’s case, that’s simply because I’m not a big fan of goalscorer bets in general. Still, these do make logical sense!
1) Jesus to Score Anytime vs Bournemouth – 13/20
This just feels like a Jesus game, doesn’t it?
Aguero has played (roughly) 80+ minutes in City’s last three games, and City have two games in four days starting next Sunday. Pep will want to keep Kun fresh, and keep Jesus sharp. Bournemouth’s leaky defence provides the perfect opportunity to do both.
I’m predicting Jesus starts. Even if he only gets subbed on, he’s still got a cracking chance at a goal.
2) Lukaku/Pogba to Score Anytime vs Southampton – EVS
As outlined earlier, I’m expecting Man U’s attack to enjoy a pleasant afternoon out against Southampton. There should be plenty of goals to go around, but – even if they only get a couple – these are your most likely scorers.
Thanks to his ludicrous form, and the fact he’s on penalties, Pogba is probably the safest bet.
Lukaku scored twice against Palace last week, and is the definition of a form player, so I’m guessing Ole will start him here to try and keep his confidence up. Lukaku has no problem doing the job against weaker teams, as we all know, so – if he does start – I’m sure he’ll bundle at least one in.
Accumulator Betting Tips
1) The Safe Option – 1.52/1
- Bournemouth vs Man City
- Man U vs Southampton
- Fulham vs Chelsea
2) Risky Accumulator of the Week – 6.02/1
- Bournemouth vs Man City
- Man U vs Southampton
- Fulham vs Chelsea
- Brighton vs Huddersfield
- Wolves vs Cardiff