Premier League Betting Tips – Week 2
Welcome one, welcome all, to the glorious return of my weekly Premier League betting tips column!
It’s easily the most enjoyable thing for me to write, either on this website or anywhere else… even if finding then making these picks does manage to drive me nuts before, during and after the weekend’s games.
I didn’t write a column last time out, as betting the first weekend of a league season is pointless. You have very few frames of reference. Who’d have seen Burnley starting off with a clean sheet after last season’s shoddy defensive record; Watford getting whooped 3-0 at home by 18/19’s 17th placed team; Bournemouth being held at home by newly-promoted Sheffield; or the mighty Arsenal winning an away game… with a clean sheet!
(You knew I had to bring that up nice and early).
I’m still extremely cautious about betting heavily this week, for the same reasons. One week of action does not give us a reliable indicator of either form or quality. I won’t be popping any big stakes down this time around, and I’d advise you not to either.
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That doesn’t mean we can’t bet at all, though.
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These are our week 2 Premier League fixtures:
Wolves vs Man U is a cracking Monday Night Football opener, while Chelsea vs Leicester is the most intriguing match-up of the weekend, after both teams underwhelmed in Week 1.
Unfortunately, the latter also makes the first edition of my new feature… The Untouchables! Each week, these will be the games which I advise steering well clear of, along with a short explanation why.
– The Untouchables, Week 2 –
- Aston Villa vs Bournemouth – We learned nothing about Villa last week, Bournemouth underwhelmed, and the Cherries were terrible away in 18/19
- Brighton vs West Ham – They started off well, but I’m not backing Brighton to beat anyone yet. West Ham got tonked by Man City… let’s not read too much into that
- Everton vs Watford – Both looked promising heading into the season. Both disappointed in Week 1. We have no feel for either yet
- Chelsea vs Leicester – You’d favour Chelsea at home, but they looked toothless last week, as did Leicester (1 shot on target). Both had disruptive summers… let’s wait and see
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With that concluded, let’s crack on with my Week 2 Premier League betting tips.
Odds are provided by Full 90 Football’s favourite bookmaker, William Hill, and will be every week hereafter. Click below to get a lovely £30 in free bets, in exchange for a £10 qualifying wager.
(All odds are correct at the time of writing)
Best Bets
As discussed, there’s no way I’m making any big bets this week.
There are a few picks that I like, but I’m simply not confident enough yet to call any of them Best Bets. You’ll find those in the next section.
Elsewhere, any obvious picks – like Arsenal to beat Burnley at home – were prohibitively expensive (3/10 in that case). The bookies aren’t taking any risks this early in the season either.
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Me Putting A Big Stake Down This Week
1/50
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(Let’s get to the good stuff.)
Tasty Tips
Here we go!
While they might not have cracked the top section this week, I really do fancy all of these picks. Again, I’d recommend moderating your stakes so early in the season… but I’ll definitely be taking all five of these.
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Wolves to Win or Draw vs Man Utd
8/13
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While I do think Chelsea vs Leicester is the most interesting game of the weekend, this one pushes it close. Man U shot out of the gates with a 4-0 win last time out, while Wolves ground out a bore draw with 2 shots on target and 30% possession against the Foxes.
As every armchair analyst knows, though, Wolves loved to turn it on against the big teams last year. Specifically we saw this very match-up three times last season (including once in the FA Cup) – Wolves won 2-1 both times at home, and drew 1-1 at Old Trafford. Clearly, they’re not afraid of Man U.
Espírito Santo won’t allow Man U the space they had to counter last week, and Wolves currently have a more threatening strike force than Chelsea. I’d consider taking them on a Double Chance at 8/13 away. At the Molineux? It’s a no-brainer.
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Wolves vs Man Utd, Both Teams to Score
17/20
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Man U invested in two high quality defenders over the summer, and their defence immediately looks better. Imagine that. Still, Jimenez and Jota present a much tougher test than the biblical-sounding duo Abraham and Mount, and I’d be surprised if Man U contained both them – and Wolves’ reasonable set piece threat – for a full 90.
For their part, while Wolves are extremely well-organised, I’d struggle to see any defence in the league stifling the counter-attacking triumvirate of Martial, Rashford and Lingard right now. Maguire is always a danger from set pieces, and Pogba – if he can be arsed – is capable of splitting a defence at any moment.
The BTTS came in all three times these teams met last season, and I’m pretty confident it will on Monday too.
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Arsenal vs Burnley, Over 2.5 Goals
8/15
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I was desperate to bet this game one way or another, because I’m confident Arsenal will win, and probably win comfortably. It was hard to actually find good value, though, so – while we’re hardly getting massive odds here – I think this is a solid mix of risk and reward.
Anecdotally, Burnley might seem like the kind of team to have caused Arsenal problems over the years. That’s… not exactly the case. They’ve played nine times since Dyche brought Burnley back to the top flight (including once in the FA Cup). Arsenal have won every game. The Over 2.5 has been covered in six of those games, including the two games last season (Arsenal won both 3-1).
Arsenal were brilliant at home last year, and have added to an already impressive attack. Lacazette should be back, it looks a perfect time to give Pépé his first start… and there’s always the chance of a comical defensive error to help boost the goal total.
This feels safe to me.
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Southampton vs Liverpool, Over 2.5 Goals
8/13
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Liverpool picked up where they left off last season, cantering to a 4-1 win against Norwich last week. They also scored two against Chelsea in the Super Cup, courtesy of the returning Mané, so they’ve clearly got their shooting boots on already. They scored the second-most away goals overall last year, and put three past Southampton in both their home and away matches.
Saints did manage to get a goal in this fixture last year, though, and were generally a mid-table side when it came to scoring at home. Still, I’m thinking Liverpool should comfortably cover this bet on their own.
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Crystal Palace to Win or Draw at Sheff Utd
1/2
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I don’t generally like to bet road teams in this column, simply because winning away in the Premier League is very, very hard. That said, Crystal Palace were exceptional away last season.
In fact, they finished an incredible 6th in the away form table, above the likes of Arsenal (naturally), Leicester, Watford, Wolves and Everton. They were actually the only team in the league to be better away than at home, by a hefty nine points. They almost certainly won’t reach those heights again, but they haven’t messed with the first team too much, and Hodgson’s still there, so I don’t see any reason why they should suddenly drop off in this respect.
This bet certainly isn’t a knock on Sheffield United, who acquitted themselves very well with a 1-1 away draw to open the season. They seem a defensively sound team… and honestly, this will probably be a pretty dull game. For Palace’s prior form more than anything, though, I don’t see the Blades winning at the weekend.
Flyers
As noted, I’ve been slightly more conservative than usual with my picks this week. Under normal circumstances all three might have been in the running for Tasty Tips… but we’re not getting ahead of ourselves just yet.
You can row back even further on the stakes for these, but they’re still worthy of consideration.
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Norwich to Beat Newcastle
6/5
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I think Newcastle are going to be dreadful this season, and intend to profit regularly from it. Going from Rafa Benitez to Steve Bruce is like going from a Range Rover – safe, reliable, comfortable – to a 2002 Ford Ka: crap. They also wisely decided to sell off the best part of their team – the striking duo – and replace them by splashing £40m on someone who scored seven goals last year. Nice.
Norwich were brilliant in 18/19, coasting home to the title atop a particularly competitive Championship. They had a real go at Liverpool at Anfield too. It… didn’t work, because Liverpool are very good, but they threatened time and again. If they play the same way this weekend, they should cruise past the Magpies.
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Aubameyang to Score Anytime vs Burnley
3/4
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I don’t generally like Goalscorer bets, but this looks as good as any.
As discussed, I think Arsenal will swat aside Burnley pretty easily, and could put three or more past them. Aubameyang continued his cracking pre-season form by bagging one against Newcastle last weekend, he’s a threat to score every week anyway, and he’ll probably have his partner-in-crime – Lacazette back alongside him on Saturday.
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Mane to Score Anytime vs Southampton
21/20
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Not quite as safe as the Aubameyang pick, but that’s why we’re getting slightly better odds for it.
With his brace against Chelsea, Mané very much continued his form from last season. I doubt Liverpool will have much trouble scoring at St. Mary’s, and the Senegalese would be my top pick to grab at least one goal.
Accumulator Betting Tips
(Selections in bold)
Korma
0.87/1
Arsenal vs Burnley
Southampton vs Liverpool
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Jalfrezi
3.3/1
Arsenal vs Burnley
Southampton vs Liverpool
Man City vs Tottenham
Everton vs Watford
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Vindaloo
15.11/1
Arsenal vs Burnley
Southampton vs Liverpool
Man City vs Tottenham
Everton vs Watford
Norwich vs Newcastle
Chelsea vs Leicester
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Continental
3.07/1
Arsenal vs Burnley
Atletico Madrid vs Getafe
Parma vs Juventus
Rennes vs PSG
Dortmund vs Augsburg
Final Thoughts
Ah, it’s good to be back!
(It’s easy for me to say that now, of course. Let’s see how I’m feeling at 10pm on Monday.)
Regardless of how it all shakes out, I’m very excited to be underway again. The Premier League’s arrival last year felt a bit flat, following the drama of the World Cup. This time out, I could hardly be more pleased that it’s back.
Good luck out there this weekend, and be sure to follow Full 90 Football on Twitter, and like our Facebook page, to get any and all future Premier League betting tips.
Cheers, everybody!
